Natural Gas Market Indicators

Summary:
There are numerous unknowns as consumers of natural gas look forward in 2009 to conditions within the economy, energy prices and energy markets.
Let’s pick a few, speaking first to the demand side. Information on the real impact of recession in the economy is only now trickling in with respect to industrial consumption of natural gas. It appears that original estimates of consumption declines were conservative and that natural gas to large volume customers is declining more significantly than anticipated.
With that said, reductions in gas supply, particularly domestic production, will take months to adjust to current demand trends. In addition, many believe that North America will become a target for additional LNG sales this year simply because it may have no other place to go.
Strong supply and modest demand is a recipe for lower prices as winter ends and the summer power generation and storage injection season comes upon us. Nearly every indicator points in the direction noted above. So, if recent history is any judge something may be positioning itself to upset the apple cart. What might that be? Supply disruptions, policy decisions – time will tell.
Educating consumers about energy and natural gas
A long-standing goal of AGA’s is to better educate the general public about how energy is produced and delivered to the American consumer.
For example, ask most Americans where the electricity they use in their homes comes from and they will respond, “The electric outlets.” And they are right – sort of, because while it is true that if you plug an electric appliance into an electric outlet, it will receive electric power, that is not where electricity originally comes from.
Electricity originally comes from coal, or natural gas, or from a nuclear power or hydroelectric plant, or – increasingly – from wind or solar energy. These original sources of energy are then converted into electricity at generation plants and delivered using transmission lines (such as those in the picture accompanying this post) to those aforementioned electric outlets.
Here is another thing most Americans don’t know. When the energy source travels from its place of origin – a coal mine in the case of coal, a wellhead in the case of natural gas – to the power plant in which it is converted to electricity, and then on to its ultimate destination at the electric outlet, it has taken a very inefficient journey. In fact, during that journey around 70 percent of the useable energy is lost. Most of that loss results from the generation process.
What is more, depending on what fuel is used to generate the electricity, varying amounts of greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere during the generation process. That is why, for example, in our new environmentally conscious climate, natural gas is now the preferred fuel for electricity generation. It is much cleaner than coal; presently it is much more abundant and reliable than wind or solar power; and it is much less controversial than nuclear power.
Of course, in addition to using natural gas to generate electricity to power electric home heaters, water heaters or stoves, natural gas is also used directly to power natural gas home heaters, water heaters or stoves. And guess what? This direct use of natural gas in homes or businesses is far more efficient than turning it into electricity for the same purpose – natural gas only loses about 10 percent of its useable energy traveling from the wellhead to the burner tip. And being more efficient, these direct uses also are more environmentally friendly. In fact, a typical American home generates twice as many greenhouse gas emissions using an electric resistance water heater than one using a comparable natural gas water heater.
That is why AGA is working to educate more Americans, including our political leaders, about the advantages of the direct use of natural gas. It increases energy efficiency, reduces greenhouse gas emissions and saves consumers money. If you’d like to see how much smaller your carbon footprint would be with increased direct use, go to www.comfortableresponsible.org and check out their carbon calculator. You might be surprised.
Mercedes-Benz looking at compressed natural gas vehicle for U.S.
As I’m constantly looking for stories on natural gas and related materials, I come across quite a few about natural gas as an alternative fuel for vehicles. Usually the story is about someone using natural gas as a fuel source for a fleet of vehicles. Great for the environment.
However, I found this one at leftlanenews.com the other day. Seems Mercedes was showing a compressed natural gas version of its B-Class small car at the recent Washington Auto Show. I didn’t get a chance to get down and see the vehicle. Did anyone else get a chance to see it?
The article goes on to say that Mercedes is strongly considering offering the technology in a U.S.-spec production vehicle and quotes Automotive News as its source.

We talk quite a bit around the office about the benefits of natural gas as opposed to other fuels. Here’s a good article on aftermarketcng.com examining some of the environmental benefits of natural gas as opposed to gasoline. Some of the highlights include:
- Ozone—Reduced tailpipe emission of ozone precursors (NOx and NMHC) On a g/mile basis, average reductions in NOx of 66 percent and 85 percent for NMHC emissions.
- Carbon monoxide—In normal driving conditions, at least 50 percent reduction in CO emissions and potential for 80-95 percent reductions under conditions like cold temperatures and acceleration.
- Sulfur Dioxide—Reductions of 90 percent or greater in SO2 emissions.
- Other gasses associated with global warming—At least 20 percent reduction in tailpipe emissions of global warming gases.
- Air Toxins—Reductions in air toxic emissions of over 85 percent. Elimination of 1,3 butadiene emissions.
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