Author Archives: Chris McGill

Chris McGill Natural Gas Market Indicators: May 26, 2017

Edition No. 300

Year-to-date natural gas demand for the power, industrial, and small volume residential and commercial sectors is down by more than 4 Bcf per day compared with 2016. A warm first quarter in most parts of the country reduced home heating loads and the winter-related peaks to gas-fired power generation.

These domestic demand declines have been largely offset by exports though. The consumption deficit compared to last year would be even larger if liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and pipeline gas to Mexico were not running more than 2 Bcf per day ahead of the 2016 pace.

As noted at the top of this blog article, this is the 300th edition of the Natural Gas Market Indicators. This marks more than 12 years of information and observations regarding natural gas markets by the AGA Energy Analysis team, as well as your interest. Thank you for your readership and including this publication as a resource as you develop your understanding of energy markets in the United States.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

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Chris McGill Natural Gas Market Indicators: April 28, 2017

Futures prices for natural gas have reliably stayed above $3 per MMBtu for the past month. Elevated pricing support comes amid the third largest amount of natural gas left in storage in the past 10 years, suggesting traders still see some market tightening as the summer approaches.

Demand from exports has provided some of this support, and expectations for additional liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity from Sabine followed by Cove Point later this year are likely factors. But natural gas is not the only commodity defining price stability or not. Oil prices had remained reliably above $50 for months until just recently when West Texas Intermediate crude slipped below. Both commodities, oil and natural gas, are priced at a level that appears to be attractive to producers.

Oil and gas rigs are now more than double the count from their respective lows established last year. The question, at least to this analyst, is how well the natural gas market is pricing in the expected future flows from new production? Will the market continue to tighten? Or will new production volumes surprise us all?

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

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Chris McGill Natural Gas Market Indicators: February 15, 2017

In North America, natural gas prices have slid below $3.00 per MMBtu with what is turning into another less-than-bitter winter for the lower-48 states. Without strong traditional sector demand—heating loads in homes and businesses—the market has instead found incremental demand and year-on-year growth from pipeline exports to Mexico and LNG shipments from Sabine Pass. Current National Weather Service forecasts point to warmer conditions for most of the country through the balance of the current winter heating season.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

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Chris McGill Natural Gas Market Indicators: January 27, 2017

The first three months of the 2016-17 winter heating season have been warmer than normal in aggregate for every region of the country. However, a recent peak day volume was nearly as high as the peak day from the first quarter 2014 polar vortex. Gas demand has been growing too, particularly as a result of institutional changes in demand from a recovering industrial sector, a power sector with an insatiable appetite for incremental gas generation.

After beginning the winter heating season with the largest fill in history, underground storage volumes are now 0.7 percent below the five-year average as lower temperatures and new structural demand in the form of natural gas power generation, firm industrial demand, seasonal heating loads and exports have facilitated triple-digit net withdrawals six of the past seven weeks.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

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