Author Archives: Richard Meyer

Richard Meyer American Energy Driving Job Growth

Some optimistic economic news emerging this week.

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this month’s job report shows U.S. payrolls gained 243,000 jobs in January, and the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%.  The decreasing unemployment rate is one more indicator that Americans are finding jobs and getting back to work.  In fact, newly revised data shows the U.S. created 1.82 million jobs in 2011.  This is good news for a U.S. economic recovery.

Contributing, in part, to the job growth over the last few years has been the booming energy industry here at home.  See the chart below.  The blue line represents total employment in oil and gas extraction, and the shaded areas indicate periods of recession.

 American Energy Driving Job Growth

Oil and gas extraction employment has added 67,700 jobs since 2003, a 57 percent increase.  After a slowdown in job additions during the 2007-2009 recession, as there were in other sectors of the economy, oil and gas extraction employment is once again growing, and at increasing pace since 2010.

And remember, these are direct jobs as classified by the BLS.  Direct jobs in turn create other employment opportunities in other sectors – called indirect jobs – which prompts new spending and new job creation yet again – these are induced effects.  Therefore, the full economic and employment effect goes beyond just the direct jobs represented here.  (See the America’s Natural Gas Alliance jobs report for more).

When you add up all the jobs from cleaner energy technologies, including renewables, biofuels, natural gas and others, the positive effect on American is apparent.

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Richard Meyer Natural Gas Market Indicators

This shouldn’t take too long. Natural gas acquisition prices are low. Storage inventories are bursting at the seams for this time of year and “must turn” requirements for some volumes of storage may put additional downward pressure on prices.

Warm weather for the country as a whole has completely trumped any market pressure on pricing that may have developed this winter given reductions in gas-directed drilling.

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Richard Meyer EIA – Natural gas production and use helps reduce emissions and increase energy security

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released its yearly long-term outlook of energy markets. EIA, the federal agency in charge of energy statistics and forecasts, uses its Annual Energy Outlook to present its view of energy consumption and production in the United States from now until 2035. They unveiled the 2012 Early Release yesterday, and a few high-level points are worth mentioning: 

1.      Natural gas production rises over projection period and shale comes to represent half of all dry gas production.

EIA sees shale as a growing and increasingly important resource of natural gas for the county; that there is a lot of gas, and it will be produced. In EIA’s view, shale gas is expected to grow to nearly half of all natural gas production by 2035, spurred by new technology, and a greater push toward more liquids-rich plays due to higher oil prices.  In the last few years, natural gas production from shale has propelled from nearly nothing to 5.0 trillion cubic feet in 2010, making it 23 percent of all U.S. gas production that year.  Data for 2011 indicates that shale production grew again last year. In the outlook, EIA sees continued growth in shale gas production, increasing to an incredible 13.6 trillion cubic feet in 2035, making it 49 percent of the total U.S. dry gas production.  

RM PIC11 300x225 EIA – Natural gas production and use helps reduce emissions and increase energy security
U.S. Natural Gas Production, 1990-2035 (trillion cubic feet)

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Richard Meyer Natural Gas Market Indicators

While many analysts do not expect to see 2012 year-over-year production growth on the scale seen in 2011, most do not expect a precipitous decline in domestic production either. Slowing gas-directed rig counts are one possible indicator of the future flattening of U.S. gas production growth, however, many analysts point to rig, well and completion efficiency improvements along with an inventory of wells yet to be hooked up as a countering market force.

Indeed, pricing pressure today as a result of market forces means starting at a baseline of $3 per MMBtu. A 50 percent increase in average acquisition prices would only result in a baseline that many analysts believe is ultimately necessary to sustain the long-term health of U.S. gas production.

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