Category Archives: weather

Richard Meyer Natural Gas Market Indicators: October 28, 2016

Gas-directed drilling bumped up during the past several weeks with price increases of $3 per MMBtu and more. But now in late October, natural gas pricing at Henry Hub is below $3 again, and the market will look for reasons to sustain the earlier momentum. Storage inventories are strong, so the one ingredient missing to frame the coming winter is heating degree days.

Will the winter for the majority of the country mean fewer (warmer than normal) or more than average heating degree days (colder than normal)? If it is cold, will it be sustained over large regions or hit and miss? Local natural gas utilities always plan for the possibility of reaching a peak design day and thus serving firm customers and others without interruption. Now Mother Nature will determine the targets to be managed with all of the resources currently in place to assure reliable, affordable service.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

Posted in Natural Gas, Natural Gas Market Indicators, weather | Leave a comment

Chris McGill Natural Gas Market Indicators: October 14, 2016

Oil-directed drilling is up 35 percent as measured by Baker-Hughes rig activity since late May 2016 and gas drilling is up 16 percent from the end of August. Much of the drilling increase is attributed to increased oil and natural gas wellhead prices – oil now over $50 per barrel and natural gas above $3 per MMBtu. These energy prices remain great values for consumers while injecting just a little more money into the upstream sector, which is not a bad thing.

We will continue to watch storage inventories and heating degree day data to see what they will say about the robustness of natural gas demand to begin the winter heating season. Remember, the winter heating season of November 2015-March 2016 was the winter that wasn’t, as national heating degree days came in 17 percent fewer (warmer) than normal. A return to any semblance of normal may mean residential and small commercial users consume more natural gas during the heating season and thus overall bills may increase.

AGA will host a media briefing on Wednesday, October 19, to present expectations for peak month natural gas supply and demand as we move into the 2016-17 winter heating season. Experts from AGA will discuss the winter outlook for the natural gas market including market stability, natural gas bills for consumers, U.S. natural gas imports and exports, the global LNG market as well as energy efficiency and the benefits of the direct use of natural gas. An open question and answer session will follow the presentation. If you are a member of the media and would like to RSVP, please email jbavaro@aga.org.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

Posted in Natural Gas Market Indicators, weather, winter heating | Leave a comment

Chris McGill Natural Gas Market Indicators: July 15, 2016

Natural gas prices tested the $3 per MMBtu mark for prompt-month futures at the end of June, but have retreated back about $0.25 given strength in storage inventories and a stubborn daily production rate that seems resistant to sustaining itself below 70 Bcf per day. However, the storage supply overhang is beginning to shrink as, of course, it should, while the net injection season progresses toward “operationally full” or perhaps even a new inventory record.

Since the beginning of the fourth week of May, the country has seen seven straight weeks of warmer than normal temperatures and thus, more cooling degree days than normal. In fact, as of the beginning of July, cooling degree days were running 18.6 percent above average with the cumulative counts 38 percent higher or more in the New England and Middle Atlantic regions. Only the West South Central region at 8.4 percent warmer was cumulatively below 14 percent warmer than normal among all regions of the country.

Clearly, as natural gas has fed power generation loads associated with the warmer temperatures, a more closely balanced supply and demand picture has emerged this summer coupled with small decreases in domestic production. The current 14-day temperature outlook from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration shows warmer than normal conditions continuing with the exception of the Pacific Northwest, which is expected to be cooler.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

Posted in Natural Gas, Natural Gas Market Indicators, weather | Leave a comment

Richard Meyer Natural Gas Market Indicators: June 15, 2016

The market is showing clear signs of tightening. Slowly falling production is eating into supplies while strengthening demand from power burn and exports means the balance into storage this June has been well below average. This deficit gives a little relief to a market with storage stocks at levels about two months ahead of schedule for a typical injection season.

The market has rationalized itself with rising prices, up now $0.60 from that $2 sticking point witnessed through much of the winter. Key to this balance, as always, will be summer weather. If temperatures drive more cooling demand, the bullish injection deficit is likely to persist.

Conversely, mild temperatures could mean additional volumes into storage, which would likely prove bearish for this market. However, the potential for additional exports through year-end may offer some additional flexibility on the demand side.

As these factors adjust in relation to each other, it’s important to step back and recognize that given the diversity and strength of demand and the rapid evolution in upstream activity just how resilient this market has been, as evidenced by lower and relatively stable prices for natural gas.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

Posted in Natural Gas, Natural Gas Market Indicators, weather | Leave a comment