Category Archives: weather

Richard Meyer Natural Gas Market Indicators: June 15, 2015

The release of the nearly 1,000 page EPA study on hydraulic fracturing and drinking water begs the question, “what will be next?” Perhaps the environmental focal point will shift to continued analysis of methane emissions within the value chain.  Only time will tell.

Natural gas acquisition prices are currently quite modest and the domestic storage position is back to more normal. In fact, from the end of May through the balance of the traditional net injection season daily injections would only have to average about 11.5 Bcf per day to bring national inventories to 4 Tcf entering the winter for the first time in history. Production fundamentals and requirements for natural gas to serve cooling loads will make that determination as the summer progresses.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

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Chris McGill Natural Gas Market Indicators: May 28, 2015

The early pattern for natural gas markets this spring, as we move to summer, has been for prompt-month pricing at Henry Hub to strengthen to $3 per MMBtu or slightly more, then fall back to below $3, then cycle again. Testing that upper bound will now begin to depend on seasonal power generation loads and continued efforts to refill underground storage.

This is the time of year when we normally begin to talk about the coming hurricane season and how that might influence markets through supply disruptions. Early prognostications of the June to November period generally point to less than normal activity for the Atlantic basin, which brings us back to watching market fundamentals – volumes of domestic production, cross border trade between the United States, Canada and Mexico and cooling loads, particularly in the Midwest, South, Middle Atlantic and Northeast, as the keys to understanding market pressures this summer.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

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Richard Meyer Natural Gas Market Indicators: March 27, 2015

After natural gas consumption records were set for the nation as a whole during the first quarter of 2014, the same period in 2015 brought a mixed bag of market observations. Although there was no polar vortex, it did get cold, primarily in the central and eastern U.S. and particularly in February. Consumption in the residential/commercial sector was down about four percent, however, consumption in the power generation sector was up 15 percent for the first quarter of 2015 compared to 2014, even with all of the records set last year.

Some of that demand increase was structural with shifts in the power source energy mix, while some was due to the relatively low and competitive price of natural gas versus coal in the marketplace. The supply picture remains strong today with hundreds of Bcf more working gas remaining in storage compared to March 31, 2014. Domestic production growth seems to be slowing – all indicators of a market seeking balance.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

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Chris McGill Natural Gas Market Indicators: March 13, 2015

We are almost ready to hang up our winter hats and look ahead to spring. Headed into the shoulder months, the fundamentals look strong. Dry gas production is maintaining flows at 70+ Bcf per day and storage is almost assured to end the winter in a year-over-year surplus.

In terms of demand, the potential for natural gas power generation to ramp up and absorb excess supply will be shaped by the market and whether natural gas prices relative to coal induce re-dispatch to combined cycle power plants. On top of this dynamic, the EPA Mercury and Air Toxics Standards take effect beginning in April. The expectation is an increase in coal retirements and more structural natural gas demand. We will be watching closely to see exactly how this plays out.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

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