Category Archives: winter heating

Chris McGill Natural Gas Market Indicators: March 14, 2014

While it may not feel like it, the winter heating season is technically approaching its close.

Even with short-term local daily cash price peaks, natural gas futures have remained remarkably stable, generally in the $4.25 to $4.75 per MMBtu range going as far out as 2017. This reflects confidence in the ability of domestic production to meet weather-induced and growing institutional demand for natural gas in the industrial, power generation and weather sensitive small volume customer sectors.

These observations continue to support the takeaway from the Natural Gas Market Indicators publication two weeks ago which stated that the nation’s natural gas supply portfolio has handled persistent cold and major weather events very well this winter heating season.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

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Chris McGill Natural Gas Market Indicators: February 13, 2014

A number of winter season records were set in January 2014, including volumes directed to power generation. According to Bentek Energy LLC, average daily consumption of natural gas for power of 21.4 Bcf in January was an all-time high for the month, as was the volume of 31.1 Bcf for a single day of gas-fired generation on January 7. These facts point to the institutional load increases that are building for power generation within the natural gas energy sector.

Even price has not adversely impacted the growth in gas to power generation during winter months, inasmuch as February 2014 Henry Hub cash has averaged about $5.84, which is higher than February 2012 and 2013 cash prices by 141 and 75 percent, respectively, according to Bentek Energy LLC. In addition, January 2014 exhibited the highest electric load for a winter month ever required from all generation sources, according to Bentek.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

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Richard Meyer Natural Gas Market Indicators: Dec. 31, 2013

The newest estimation of the natural gas supply/demand balance from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) recorded in the 2014 AEO Outlook Early Release is a mixture of many interesting observations, modeled results and assumptions. In some cases, the view is more optimistic than it was in 2013. Noting many evolving market conditions, for example, EIA envisions strong and earlier than previously expected total LNG and pipeline natural gas exports. This is supported by a domestic production picture that grows more than 50 percent from 2012 to 2040 on the back of unconventional resource development.

Demographic changes are influencing model results as well. For example, EIA sees a reduction in the growth of vehicle miles traveled due primarily to an aging population. Couple this observation with increases in fuel economy for light duty vehicles and the recipe makes for a reduction in energy consumed in the personal vehicle market from about 16 quadrillion Btus in 2012 to 12.1 quads in 2040.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Reader Notice

AGA is very grateful for the reader interest in our Natural Gas Market Indicators report, which is now marking the 218th issue published. Although we will continue to circulate the document twice per month via e-mail, a new look is in the works and new tools for you to forward the report to others are being developed. Please be on the lookout for initial changes in the format beginning January 2014. Our content and purpose will remain the same, which is to provide you a snapshot of critical natural gas industry developments from a local gas utility perspective. Thank you again for your interest in our market views and your readership.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

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Chris McGill Natural Gas Market Indicators: Dec. 13, 2013

An early-season cold Canadian air mass and snowy, icy conditions from the northern plains to the middle Atlantic have pushed Henry Hub and prompt-month futures pricing to more than $4.25 per MMBtu. In addition, natural gas demand exceeded 115 Bcf on Sat., Dec. 7, 10 and 11 (the highest volume of consumption since Jan. 2013), which does happen periodically but not normally this early in the season.

Strong storage withdrawals have answered the call, but some production areas have been influenced by well freeze-offs. It has been a rather dynamic start to the 2013-14 winter heating season. Could the country actually experience a colder-than-normal winter from start to finish during the next four months? Time will tell.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Reader Notice

AGA is very grateful for the reader interest in our Natural Gas Market Indicators report, which is now marking the 217th issue published. Although we will continue to circulate the document twice per month via e-mail, a new look is in the works and new tools for you to forward the report to others are being developed. Please be on the lookout for initial changes in the format beginning January 2014. Our content and purpose will remain the same, which is to provide you a snapshot of critical natural gas industry developments from a local gas utility perspective. Thank you again for your interest in our market views and your readership.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org

Posted in energy, environment, Natural Gas, people, weather, winter heating | Leave a comment