What did not happen in the United States over the summer – production declines led by a falling rig count and lower demand – actually did materialize to our north, in Canada.
According to Barclays Capital, increases in Canadian unconventional drilling have been insufficient to offset a falling rig count, and production is expected to decline both this year and next. United States production remained flat or increased (led by shale), while LNG imports and imports from Canada moderated or declined compared to historical values.
These factors suggest that the “supply stack” in the United States is led by shale and offshore supplies, followed in a distant second by Canadian and LNG imports. As we have all heard in recent months, it really is all about shale gas.
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