Chris McGill Natural Gas Market Indicators

The Henry Hub Spot Price for Natural Gas today is $2.15 per MMBtu.  Strong domestic supplies and modest demand, of course, are the principal reasons why acquisition prices remain low. With that said, market fundamentals on the supply side, particularly the decline in gas-directed rig counts, appear to be influencing some analytical outlooks, which now point to strengthening Henry Hub prices as the year moves forward. However, to place the outlooks in context, strengthening prices mean averages that may push closer to $3.00 per MMBtu by year-end 2012 and perhaps $3.50 in 2013, reflecting a continued trend toward relative price stability for the near-term.

Without repeating what has been said over and over during the past several months regarding prevailing natural gas market conditions, perhaps the two most watched industry metrics for the coming months will be the pace at which domestic natural gas production responds to the market balancing influence of reduced gas-directed rig activity and the continued momentum associated with natural gas’ capture (from coal) of base and incremental power generation requirements this summer. Flat or decreasing domestic production should lead to pricing increases at the wellhead if summer cooling loads so influence the market. On the other hand, the relatively high level of working gas in storage at season’s end means less will be necessary for daily injections and this could have a moderating impact on price rationalization in an adjusting market.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators.  Topics covered include: weather, working gas in underground storage, natural gas production, shale gas, rig counts, pipeline imports and exports, LNG markets, and a summary of the natural gas market.

AGA will hold conference call for any interested reader of the Natural Gas Market Indicators on Monday April 2, 2012 from 2:00-3:00pm eastern time to discuss the post 2011-2012 winter heating season.  The call can be accessed by dialing 832-431-3335, participant code 9071373#.

The March 30, 2012 Natural Gas Market Indicators will be reviewed briefly, then the conference will be opened to any questions callers may have regarding the report or other natural gas topics. AGA’s Policy and Analysis staff will host the call, and related questions or discussion. Please take this opportunity to interact with NGMI content developers and other key AGA staff members.

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