Chris McGill Natural Gas Market Indicators: Aug. 15, 2013

Temperatures across the nation have cooled during the past three weeks, pulling down the warmer than normal conditions for the summer to 9.4 percent more cooling degree days – warmer than normal – since the first week of May. Regionally, the Pacific (31.9 percent warmer) and New England (54.7 percent warmer) regions have been warmest compared to normal, with the Middle Atlantic and Mountain regions also very warm. The center of the country has experienced, cumulatively, much more near normal conditions for the summer season to date.

With that said, hurricane activity this year in the Atlantic basin has been relatively calm though more activity is expected. Hurricane season normally gets more serious during August and September, but influences on domestic supply and prices (even short term impacts) have been muted in recent years because of the emergence of shale gas supplies, which are centered onshore in the U.S.

As of August 2, the Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane forecast team has reduced its estimate of nine hurricanes to eight, and four major storms to three for the remainder of the 2013 season. According to the CSU analysts, the Atlantic tropical water has cooled from original predictions in the eastern Atlantic and the chances of an El Nino event are very small. Each of those conditions points to some reduction in original activity forecasts.

Let’s see what August and September bring!

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

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