Richard Meyer Natural Gas Market Indicators: Oct. 14, 2013

In the recent report Global Geopolitics Reshaped by North American Energy Independence, research and consultant group Wood Mackenzie anticipates that North America will become a net exporter of energy – collectively in the form of oil, natural gas and coal – by 2020. This is a net position as Wood Mackenzie analysts expect North America to remain a key player in global markets as a supplier (exporter) and consumer of these fuels.

Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released estimates projecting that U.S. combined petroleum and natural gas hydrocarbon production will surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia, placing it number one in the world in terms of production by the end of 2013. In addition to the burgeoning North American supply position among the energy resources, China’s influence as a major consumer is expected to be a big part of defining the world market place for fossil fuels in terms of pricing. If these trends continue, observations of the geopolitical consequences should be fascinating.

Meanwhile, AGA’s first report on heating degree days for the 2013-2014 winter heating season is in. For the week ending October 5, national temperatures were nearly 56 percent warmer than normal and 37 percent warmer than last year. Of course, cumulative heating degree days only totaled 30, so the season is young. Tropical Storm Karen formed during the last week of September in the Gulf of Mexico and threatened the Gulf Coast before dissipating to a tropical depression status.

According to reports filed October 6 by the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) which was operating at partial capacity despite the government shutdown, about 48 percent of natural gas output and 62 percent of crude production had been temporarily shut in, amounting to more than 855,000 barrels per day of oil and 1.8 Bcf per day of natural gas, respectively. Despite an early start, the Atlantic Hurricane season has featured only 11 named storms and two hurricanes, with zero major hurricanes rated.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators report. Topics covered in this week’s report include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Shale Gas, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

Please direct questions and comments to Chris McGill at cmcgill@aga.org or Richard Meyer at rmeyer@aga.org.

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