Chris McGill Natural gas market indicators

090615ngmi Natural gas market indicators

It is always interesting to follow how certainty in the natural gas market seems to change in short order.

Two months ago there was a growing consensus that imported LNG would flood the U.S. market. As the comments point out, recent supplier news may be contrary to that outlook. Natural gas acquisition prices seem to have diverted from that of oil and, of course, views regarding the recovery of the overall economy are many and diverse.

So, which trend will lose traction over the next 60-90 days? Which market fundamental is most likely to shift? These are great questions but they are great unanswerable questions at this time.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicator. Topics covered include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

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Kristin Schrader Marcell Will low natural gas prices lead to natural-gas fired plants

Yesterday the Wall Street Journal ran a story about how new supplies of natural gas, combined with reduced demand for electricity, have decreased natural gas prices to less than $4 per million British thermal units, which some say could prompt power companies to invest billions of dollars in natural-gas fired plants.

Specifically in the article “Lower Natural-Gas Price Leaves Coal Out in Cold,” Rebecca Smith and Ben Casselman reported that coal now accounts for about half of the nation’s electricity, compared with about 21 percent from natural gas. However, they stated that “natural-gas plants can be built more quickly and inexpensively than coal plants, and they release about half as much carbon dioxide as coal to produce similar amounts of electricity. That could be a big advantage if Congress passes a climate-change bill that would cap such carbon emissions.”

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Natural-gas plants can be built more quickly and inexpensively than coal plants, and they release about half as much carbon dioxide as coal to produce similar amounts of electricity.

Additionally, new natural-gas discoveries in Texas, Louisiana, Pennsylvania and elsewhere, have created a large natural gas supply abundance that has changed the view of U.S. gas supplies and fuel outlooks for the near future. In fact, according to a research report released June 1, 2009 by Merrill Lynch & Co, ‘in parts of the U.S. where there are daily electricity auctions, gas generators are chipping away at coal market share with lower prices. Coal-to-gas switching has created incremental gas demand of three billion cubic feet a day, and ‘further switching potential is still large, in our view.’”

This article is very timely since the American Gas Association and the Potential Gas Committee are hosting a press conference this Thursday, June 18, 2009 at 10:00am in Washington, DC to announce the unprecedented abundance of U.S. natural gas supply, as well as future consumer impacts. With climate change and energy proposals being considered on Capitol Hill this summer, we think that that these new natural gas discoveries are changing the national debate on energy and future domestic energy supplies. After reading this article, what do you think?

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Dan Gibson University of Illinois-Chicago installs Compressed Natural Gas infrastructure

One of the sites I like to keep an eye on is the Department of Energy’s Clean Cities program. I was browsing there the other day and found a great story about the University of Illinois-Chicago (UIC) and their support of their campus transportation fleet.

Recently, the UIC worked with the Chicago Area Clean Cities coalition to use grant funding to install a Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) infrastructure at their university. The funding was used for two slow-fill dispensing units and two quick-fill CNG units.

UIC first purchased their CNG-powered vehicles in 1997. Pablo Acevedo, associate director of facilities management at UIC said, “The decision back then was based on cost savings and environmental concerns. Those are the same reasons we continue to add CNG vehicles to our fleet.” UIC is also allowing vehicles owned by the City of Chicago to fill up at the UIC facility. Great move on their part.

The universities transportation system includes a variety of alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) that represent 36 percent of their fleet. Some of these AFV’s include:

  • 12 light-duty hybrids
  • 37 flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs)
  • 26 vehicles that operate on B20
  • two compressed natural gas (CNG) cargo vans
  • a CNG Crown Victoria
  • nine CNG Blue Bird buses transport an average of 2,000 people daily around the campus

Chicago Clean Cities Coordinator Samantha Bingham said, “UIC’s commitment to its alternative fuel program and its involvement in the coalition make it an exemplary fleet in the Chicago area.”

Visit Clean Cities for the full story.

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Tom Moskitis Huge Supplies of Offshore Natural Gas Within Reach

The Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee continued marking-up energy legislation this week and turned to oil and gas issues. What may turn out to be very good news for consumers was the committee’s action to provide more access to the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) for oil and natural gas leasing.

The committee approved an amendment offered by Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND) that will provide significant new access in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico (EGOM). Under current law, oil and gas leasing is prohibited until 2022 in the EGOM that lies within 125 miles of the Florida Panhandle and within 235 miles of the state’s western coastline.

The Dorgan amendment will open the EGOM beyond 45 miles of the Florida coast for oil and gas development, including the “Destin Dome” natural gas discovery that lies approximately 25 miles south of Pensacola. Existing pipeline and other vital infrastructure lie right next door in the already open Central Gulf of Mexico, so natural gas produced from the new area could come online and be on its way to consumers fairly quickly.

According to the American Petroleum Institute, The Destin Dome could produce anywhere from 110 to 165 billion cubic feet of gas every year for the next 20 years.  U.S. Senators from both parties have long been saying that we need to solve the problem of our dependence on imported oil. Some of the answers, such as renewable and alternative forms of energy, involve very long lead times. The Dorgan Amendment, however, provides a here and now solution that can be realized fairly quickly.

Perennial Senate opponents to offshore energy production, such as Bill Nelson of Florida and Robert Menendez of New Jersey, have vowed to filibuster and the environmental groups are calling the amendment a “poison pill” that will bring down the entire energy bill. But I agree with Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska who believes that the addition of real domestic energy production to the bill actually enhances its chance of passage. Could this be because the overwhelming majority of the American public is in favor of offshore drilling for oil and natural gas?

For the sake of our economy and our standard of living, let us hope that the Dorgan amendment gets enacted into law. For a summary of the Dorgan amendment, click here. To see AGA’s letter, click here. To read our press release, click here.

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