Bruce Kauffmann AGA President and CEO Dave McCurdy on first impressions of the industry

The March issue of American Gas magazine features an interview with AGA’s new president and CEO, Dave McCurdy, who joined AGA after serving for four years as president and CEO of the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers (Alliance).  In this follow up to a previous post, McCurdy shares his first impressions of the industry and AGA.

Excerpts from this American Gas interview, edited for space and clarity, will appear at True Blue Natural Gas throughout March.  The entire interview can be read at aga.org.

AMERICAN GAS: Granting that you have a bit of a learning curve ahead, would you share your first impressions of the natural gas utility industry, especially your impressions of where the industry will be in the future?

McCURDY: Well, there’s always a learning curve when joining a new organization, but I’m a disciple of accelerated learning. I have given a copy of a book called The First 90 Days to AGA’s senior staff. It talks about how you accelerate learning and transitions, and I’m a strong advocate of that.

But keep in mind that in terms of a learning curve, I grew up in the Oklahoma oil and gas patch and represented a district in Congress that was a center of the oil and gas industry. I have seen how the rapid advances in technology over the years have literally been a game-changer in terms of expanding the unconventional gas resources and their effect on stable and affordable natural gas prices. This country is blessed with domestic shale gas equivalent to the oil reserves of Iran.

One way or the other I have been involved in discussions about energy my entire career. Recently I met with T. Boone Pickens, and we discussed a lot more than the football rivalry between his alma mater, OSU (Oklahoma State University), and my beloved OU (University of Oklahoma). He and I share the view that we can, and must, take advantage of the full mix of “all-American fuels,” including natural gas and alternatives. That view is shared by members of Congress and the Obama administration with whom I have also had frequent conversations.

You’ll find that I’m a natural optimist and believe that we have a great future as long as we dedicate ourselves to a common purpose. The future for natural gas as a domestic fossil fuel is extremely bright as we move to a sustainable energy policy for tomorrow. But the key word there is “sustainable.” That’s the bridge that must connect all of the energy stakeholders, including both political parties. We all have to agree on a sustainable energy policy.

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Andrew Soto What is market manipulation?

Over the past several years, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have all been given statutory authority—authority patterned after that given to the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in § 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act—to punish market manipulation.  Although all four agencies now have nearly identical regulations on their books prohibiting market manipulation, there does not appear to be much consistency among the agencies on just what they think market manipulation really is.

A recent discussion paper by The Brattle Group titled “Losing Money to Increase Profits: A Proposed Framework for Defining Market Manipulation” goes a long way towards articulating a practical definition of market manipulation.  The question is not merely theoretical.  Regulators need to know what to look for and how to build a solid enough case to reliably prosecute instances of market manipulation.  In addition, the regulated community needs to know what market manipulation is in order to build effective compliance programs to prevent its occurrence.

The Brattle Group’s definition makes a lot of sense.    It asserts that market manipulation occurs when an entity intentionally loses money on a price-setting transaction to benefit related positions in price-taking transactions.  Selling physical natural gas at a loss to help drive down an index price in order to make a profit on transactions that are priced at the index should be considered manipulation.  The Brattle Group’s discussion paper explains how the definition could be applied and used, as well as a variety of situations to address the circumstances commonly understood to be market manipulation.  I think it would be beneficial for all of the agencies (FERC, CFTC, FTC, and SEC) to consider adopting a common definition for market manipulation and to look closely at The Brattle Group’s proposal.

The definition, however, raises one interesting issue—what happens when the price-setting transaction is regulated by one agency and the price-taking transaction is regulated by another agency?  Which agency has jurisdiction to prosecute the manipulation?  The FERC and the CFTC have been at odds over jurisdiction ever since FERC instituted proceedings against Amaranth Advisors for allegedly manipulating exchange-traded natural gas futures (regulated by the CFTC) because the futures index sets the price of physical natural gas sales (regulated by FERC).

In order for The Brattle Group’s proposed definition of market manipulation to succeed, the agencies would have to agree on how to proceed when more than one regulator is involved.  When an entity intentionally loses money selling physical natural gas at Henry Hub in order to drive down the Henry Hub index price because it would benefit the entity’s futures position at Henry Hub, which agency would prosecute the manipulation scheme—FERC, CFTC, both?

I suggest that the agency that regulates the price-setting transaction would have primary jurisdiction to prosecute the manipulation, with the agency that regulates the price-taking transaction assuming a supporting role.  The agency that regulates the price-setting transaction would have a better understanding of when a loss would be explained by legitimate business purposes or when that loss is the trigger for a manipulation scheme.  In the example above, FERC would have primary jurisdiction to prosecute an alleged manipulation based on losses on physical natural gas sales in order to benefit a position in the futures market.  If the situation were reversed (the losses were in the futures market to benefit physical sales positions), the CFTC would have primary jurisdiction.  However you may come out on this question, one agency only should take the lead so that all parties—regulators and regulated alike—know the rules of the road.

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Chris McGill Natural Gas Market Indicators

From November 2010 through the end of February 2011, average daily demand was about 2.6 Bcf higher than the previous year November to February period. Even with strong net storage withdrawals at times during January and February 2011, domestic production met a significant portion of that increase, according to Bentek Energy LLC. With the winter heating season winding down, daily market demand, which peaked at 100 Bcf per day or more on the coldest winter days, is settling into the high 70s.

Market attention will turn to expectations for storage injections and summer power generation loads. What clearly seems to have evolved out of the passing winter season is a market psychology that defaults to a view that supply is strong, even during times of seasonally induced demand stresses. That is an extraordinarily different market psychology than that of a decade ago.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicators. Topics covered include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

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Lydia Meigs Natural Gas Will Make U.S. Competitive and Green

John Rowe Calls Natural Gas a Genuine Elixir

When the head of Chicago-based Exelon Corporation, John Rowe, stands up to say that natural gas is our country’s solution for a clean energy economy, Congress should listen.  On March 8, 2011, Rowe spoke to a baited audience at an American Enterprise Institute (AEI) event on energy policy.  His keynote address described his radically rational economic approach to energy policy for the 112th Congress.

So what is next on the horizon?

In a word, nothing.  Rowe explained that he is not here to ask Congress to do anything about energy.  “I’m actually here to ask that it do nothing,” he said.  “Fortunately, doing nothing just might be an area where a divided Congress can excel.”

Our legislators must allow market forces to work and embrace our domestic abundant supply of natural gas.  This will allow the U.S. to transition to a clean energy future – minimizing the burden on consumers, taxpayers, and the federal budget – and will position America to better compete globally.

Rowe, who represents the nation’s largest fleet of nuclear plants, has seen Exelon struggle recently because of the low price of natural gas.  Nuclear plants in competitive electricity markets in Illinois and Pennsylvania end up selling power at reduced rates tied to the price of natural gas.  “I’ve never met a nuclear plant I didn’t like,” Rowe said, “but we have to spend twice what China spends to build new nuclear.”

That is why he urged Congress to do nothing.  America’s energy portfolio is strong right now.  And natural gas has dramatically increased the long-term supplies of our domestic energy sources.  “Natural gas is already jump-starting the transition to cleaner energy,” Rowe said.  “Natural gas is going to green our electricity supply and make us relatively more competitive.”

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