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Natural gas market indicators
Natural gas prices have rebounded slightly from a brief flirtation below the $2 per MMBtu benchmark. So, has the market seen the bottom of Henry Hub price fluctuations? Some analysts believe so, however, others say the minor rally can’t be sustained without nature bringing on a supply disruption.
The current winter heating season outlook for consumer bills is for a decline in winter bills for natural gas customers on average compared to the 2008-2009 winter but clearly such an outlook is dependent on weather and market predictability – something that seems more and more elusive.
Looking at last year’s expectations, the EIA winter fuels outlook (October 2008) pointed to an 18 percent increase in average home heating bills for the 2008-2009 winter. By March 2009, EIA had adjusted that final expectation to only a one percent increase. That isn’t a criticism of EIA – it is a testament to the unpredictable influences on today’s energy market.
Even though lower price projections compared to last year seem very reasonable, it seems just as reasonable to assume that prices will rise with the onslaught of winter heating demand loads and perhaps with increasing industrial demand.
For example, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index for July reported that the manufacturing sector is expanding again, marking the first time since the recession began. BENTEK Energy’s modeling suggests that the increase in manufacturing activity is translating into higher industrial demand for gas (a 10 percent increase from May to August).
Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicator. Topics covered include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.
The natural gas rodeo’s right around the corner
Have you ever been to the rodeo? I don’t mean the one I watch on ESPN with the bull riders. I mean the natural gas rodeo. I’m talking about the natural gas rodeo being held in Fairview, Illinois on September 25-26.
The rodeo began in 1990 with 12 events held at the ballpark next to Denver’s Arapahoe Generating Station. After the first year, the rodeo was narrowed down to the relay and four other events. Those other four events are:
- Dig Box
By far, the most popular event. Gas journeymen dig down four feet to find a buried box, then refill the hole – all done in a flurry of flying dust and dirt and shovels. - Gate Valve
Participants open and then close a gas valve as fast as possible. - Pipe Cut
Competitors have to pick up a pair of pipe cutters and cut a piece of 6″ gas pipe. The record time for that event is a speedy 15.0 seconds (held by Public Service of Colorado’s “Rocky Mountain Bad Gas” Randy Utecht, A. J. Morris, Rich Muench, and Joe Copland). - Meter Set
Contestants build a gas meter set-up from scratch.
The event went national in 1995 and involved eight teams from around the country. In 1999 the event moved to its current home in Fairview. Here’s the video from last year’s opening ceremonies.
All Roads to Copenhagen are Paved with Energy Efficiency
Looks like I’ll be at the Alliance to Save Energy’s “All Roads to Copenhagen are Paved with Energy Efficiency” event next week. It’s an important event leading up to the Copenhagen Climate Conference. Dave’s going to be one of the speakers there on a panel with Tom King, the President of National Grid, and Jim Rogers, CEO of Duke Energy. Should be a great panel.
From the web site:
As the 2009 United Nations Copenhagen Climate Conference approaches, there has never been a better time to discuss the major role energy efficiency must play in determining a global climate protocol. Discover how the U.S. and the international community are currently strengthening the economy, enhancing energy security, and helping slow climate change through energy efficiency. Representatives from industry, government, and the consumer interest community will address the need to utilize energy efficiency as the quickest, cleanest, and cheapest means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.
On September 17, 2009, the Alliance’s summit “All Roads to Copenhagen are Paved with Energy Efficiency,” will assemble global leaders in Washington, DC for a discussion on the role energy efficiency must play in global climate protocol.
If you’re at the event, make sure you say “Hello.”
True Blue Natural Gas Blog from the American Gas Association (AGA)- Beating the Heat with Summer LIHEAP Action Day
- “The Future of Natural Gas,” Meet Dr. Ernest J. Moniz, MIT
- Renewable Gas – Vision for a Sustainable Gas Network
- The Natural Gas Revolution
- The natural gas grid…the really smart grid
- Meeting the Route 66 guys
- Drilling 101
- ‘Drive To Inspire’ Rides Through Tulsa
- Congratulations to the AGA Awards of Merit Recipients
- Summer LIHEAP Action Day
