Mike Pomorski Natural Gas Market Indicators

100215.ngmi .sm  Natural Gas Market Indicators

Record amounts of snow in the mid-Atlantic and periodic cold temperatures in many regions of the country have not been able to shake-off the relative strength of U.S. natural gas supply this winter heating season. Henry Hub cash and futures prices remain stable in a $5.30-6.00 per MMBtu range and seem to be rational in a market still sporting high levels of working gas in underground storage, firm daily production and demonstrated flexibility from Canadian and LNG sources.

To some waiting for a domestic production fall, it remains remarkable that rig operations in the United States are on the increase again and that the majority are clearly targeted to sustain and grow more natural gas production capability in the country.

Visit this link to download the full Natural Gas Market Indicator. Topics covered include: Reported Prices, Weather, Working Gas in Underground Storage, Natural Gas Production, Rig Counts, Pipeline Imports and Exports, and LNG Markets.

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Dan Gibson Hackers Steal Millions in Carbon Credits

There’s a lot of debate about cap and trade here in the States. The debate makes for interesting reading. There are a number of different scenarios and ideas surrounding the whole cap and trade concept. One concept I hadn’t considered, and maybe I should, is theft. Not sure what I mean?

Give this article at Wired a quick read. Basically a group of hackers launched a phishing campaign against employees of some companies in Europe, New Zealand and Japan. Phishing is when a hacker sends an email to someone directing them to a fake Web site trying to get the person to enter in sensitive information like their password. The site captures the information and the hacker can use it later to access the account.

In this case, the emails appeared to come from the German Emissions Trading Authority that records carbon credits and transactions. The employees were told that their companies needed to re-register their accounts with the Authority and were directed to a fake Web site to enter the information.

According to an estimate from the BBC, the hackers stole 250,000 carbon credit permits from six companies worth more than $4 million. At least seven out of 2,000 German firms that were targeted in the phishing attack fell for it, including one firm that lost $2.1 million in credits in the fraud.

The buyers of the credits have not been named and the German Emissions Trading Authority has suspended access to its databases while an investigation is underway.

Has anyone else heard any stories like these?

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Jim Linn Thank Goodness for Natural Gas

A snow storm of historic proportions was forecast to begin Friday, February 5, 2010 in the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan area. As predicted, the snow began just before noon and continued through the day and evening. At some point in the middle of the night, the electric power to our neighborhood went out. We woke to a house that was 64 degrees and dropping. My first thought was how to keep my family warm. Fortunately our home has a natural gas fireplace.

Typically we start our fireplace with a remote control. With the power out, the remote control and the wall switch, which both run on electricity, were both inoperable. After a quick review of the manual, I opened the access panel and manually started the fireplace. Within minutes, the temperature of our family room rose to 65 degrees and by late morning it even reached 70 degrees which was very comfortable. This temperature was maintained for the rest of the day. Our home has an open first floor design which meant that the heat from the fireplace also kept our kitchen warm. In order to contain the heat we hung a sheet over the opening to our dining room and hall. During this time the temperature kept dropping in the second floor and reached as low as 50 degrees late in the afternoon.

Not only did natural gas keep us warm but we also enjoyed hot food. We manually lit the burners on our gas stove and cooked pancakes for breakfast. We grilled sandwiches for lunch, and we cooked green beans, pierogies and steak for dinner. And, we had plenty of hot water for washing dishes in the sink and hot showers all thanks to our natural gas hot water heater.

During this power outage many friends and neighbors headed to local hotels for safety. Unfortunately our neighborhood had not been plowed and getting out would have been difficult if not impossible. Without our natural gas service and appliances we would have had a quite cold and challenging experience. Instead, we enjoyed the warmth of our home and family while enjoying the comfort of cooked food and hot water.

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Andrew Soto American Gas Association vs. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

On January 22, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit issued an opinion holding that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) failed to respond to the reasonable concerns of a dissenting commissioner when it revised the financial reporting forms interstate pipelines are required to file.  American Gas Association v. FERC, No. 08-1266 (D.C. Cir. decided Jan. 22, 2010). The court held that while FERC is not required to agree with arguments raised by a dissenting commissioner, it must, at a minimum, acknowledge and consider them, which FERC failed to do.  The court remanded the case back to FERC, noting that while FERC could again conclude that the burdens of additional reporting outweigh the benefits, it must do so in a reasoned decision that acknowledges the concerns raised by the dissenting commissioner.

As several have suggested, the significance of this ruling is far greater than the individual FERC proceeding involved and even greater than the case AGA had thought it was bringing to the court.  On its own, the court focused on FERC’s failure to address the arguments raised in dissent by then-commissioner, now-chairman Jon Wellinghoff.  This case will stand as precedent for all Federal agencies that, as a matter of administrative law, agencies must address the arguments raised by their dissenting commissioners.  Failure to do so will make their orders vulnerable to a court challenge.

A recent article in Inside FERC (“Court stance on FERC dissents seen as unworkable”) suggests that the ruling could adversely impact the decision-making process at FERC.  The article noted that, unlike courts, dissents in FERC cases are normally not circulated in advance.  Former FERC Chairman Joseph Kelliher was quoted as discussing the difficulty of requiring commissioners to supply a dissent in advance and the potential damage to comity among the commissioners of “gamesmanship” associated with the timing of supplying the dissent.

I take a contrary view.  I believe that the ruling will actually strengthen the decision-making process at FERC.  In the article, both Kelliher and former FERC general counsel William Sherman acknowledged that even though dissents are not normally circulated in advance, the views of a dissenting commissioner are generally known before the order is voted on.  Therefore, the ruling will simply require the majority to pay a little more attention to them.  During the deliberative process, the chairmen and staff will need to know when a commissioner will dissent and what the fundamental concerns are.  That can only help the process.  When I worked for former FERC Chairman Pat Wood, it was part of my job to know when a commissioner would dissent and what the dissent would say.  Pat told me he wanted to know because “I may agree with them.”

The concerns that have been raised regarding the potential for delay or gamesmanship can be easily addressed.  First, problems can be fixed on rehearing.  A large part of FERC’s vulnerability in the orders that led to the court’s decision stemmed from the fact that FERC waited until the rehearing order to even address AGA’s arguments, and it was the rehearing order to which Wellinghoff dissented.  FERC can reduce the impact of this ruling if it adequately addresses the arguments that are raised the first time around.  The dissent will have been revealed initially, which FERC can address on rehearing.

Second, even if the press of business prevents full consideration of all of the arguments initially and a dissent surfaces in a rehearing order, voluntary remand is available.  In any court case, FERC has an opportunity to seek a remand of the orders for which judicial review is sought in order to further consider them and even provide additional support and reasoning for its decisions.  The FERC solicitor can review the orders that have been taken up and, if there is a dissent, make a determination if the arguments were adequately addressed.  If additional reasoning is needed, FERC can seek a voluntary remand.

In the end, the court’s opinion should stand for the proposition that an agency must adequately justify its decisions, even when the challenge comes from one of its own commissioners.  The outcome of the court’s opinion should be better, more well-reasoned agency decisions.

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